OMG Politics, I'm over it already.

[Kerouac]

Clinton won't quite get there this month, but she'll start calling for him to bail on June 7. She'll do it if the superdelegates are the only reason she gets there, or if she has the popular vote too. I'll be shocked if he doesn't comply.

If he can keep it close in CA then there is no reason for him to bow out before the convention.

FWIW, I've written every single OH super delegate and informed them as well as the DNC that I won't be donating to a Clinton Presidential Campaign and will be paying attention to how the super delegates vote.

 

[GomezAddams]

He just has to keep it close, and it's really not that miraculous. As long as he can stay within 10 points of Clinton in every contest, he has a strong enough case to push for a contested convention, which he has said he can do. Clinton would have to win 75% of the remaining delegates to win without adding the super delegates to the table. All Sanders has to do is keep it close and not let up on the message.

Democrats don't have "contested conventions". That's a Republican thing. Yes, I know some people are talking about a Democratic "contested convention", but what they really mean is one where it will come down to super delegates to decide - one where neither Clinton or Sanders have enough pledged delegates to get the nomination outright.

Remember though - the super delegates are hardcore democratic party long-timers. They are owned several times over by the money behind the party. And you can bet that money is telling them they are done if they vote Sanders.

Sanders is roughly 300 pledged delegates behind Clinton. He'd have to sweep California (546 delegates) and New Jersey (142) before he could hope to pass Clinton. Ain't gonna happen. As a matter of fact, I predict Clinton will win the majority of California's delegates.

 

[Chad]

I think if Bernie keeps it close and the polls keep showing him beating Trump by a much larger number, the super delegates may change their vote. I think the party realizes Trump can not get into the White House so they will take the best way to beat him.

 

[Kerouac]

Democrats don't have "contested conventions". That's a Republican thing. Yes, I know some people are talking about a Democratic "contested convention", but what they really mean is one where it will come down to super delegates to decide - one where neither Clinton or Sanders have enough pledged delegates to get the nomination outright.

Remember though - the super delegates are hardcore democratic party long-timers. They are owned several times over by the money behind the party. And you can bet that money is telling them they are done if they vote Sanders.

Sanders is roughly 300 pledged delegates behind Clinton. He'd have to sweep California (546 delegates) and New Jersey (142) before he could hope to pass Clinton. Ain't gonna happen. As a matter of fact, I predict Clinton will win the majority of California's delegates.

I get the numbers. Again, he just has to keep the race tight and to keep Clinton from sweeping any of the states.

 

[sunvalleylaw]

I think it comes down to the party politics. Bernie is on the Democratic ticket this year but really has not been a part of the Democratic Party until now. Long time Democrat friends that I know hold that against him. I am sure others feel the same way. In a way, it feels like union politics. Bernie is an outsider. Unions are necessary for collective-bargaining, but I do not love everything about how they operate. The two party system feels the same way to me this year.

Now that begs the question about Bernie pushing the conversation further over to the left so that the democratic party starts to include some older traditional Democratic positions again. I don't see him going out until that math is very clear. But I also do not see a victory for him in terms of winning the primary. Moving the conversation will be the victory.

 

[mongooz]

I think it comes down to the party politics. Bernie is on the Democratic ticket this year but really has not been a part Of the Democratic Party until now. Long time Democrat friends that will hold that against him. In a way, it feels like union politics. Bernie is an outsider. Unions are necessary for collective-bargaining, but I do not love everything about how they operate. The two party system feels the same way to me this year.

Now that begs the question about Bernie pushing the conversation further over to the left so that the democratic party starts to include some older traditional Democratic positions again. I don't see him going out until that math is very clear. But I also do not see a victory for him in terms of winning the primary. Moving the conversation will be the victory.

standing for something.....instead of opposing the republicans/uber conservatives.

that about right?

 

[sunvalleylaw]

Well, I don't see it quite that black-and-white. But kind of.

 

[mongooz]

Well, I don't see it quite that black-and-white. But kind of.

it was once said that there are two kinds of people that run for president (or congress).....those that want to accomplish something......and those who want to be somebody.
bernie might be one of the former. everyone else running right now is one of the latter.

 

[sunvalleylaw]

I think I may have just called Hillary "Jimmy Hoffa". Maybe not the most principled bloke. But tough in a fight. Not a direct analogy I know. But you get the idea. I think political parties are the equivalent of unions in the collective bargaining of political governance.

 

[Kerouac]

I think it comes down to the party politics. Bernie is on the Democratic ticket this year but really has not been a part of the Democratic Party until now. Long time Democrat friends that I know hold that against him. I am sure others feel the same way. In a way, it feels like union politics. Bernie is an outsider. Unions are necessary for collective-bargaining, but I do not love everything about how they operate. The two party system feels the same way to me this year.

Now that begs the question about Bernie pushing the conversation further over to the left so that the democratic party starts to include some older traditional Democratic positions again. I don't see him going out until that math is very clear. But I also do not see a victory for him in terms of winning the primary. Moving the conversation will be the victory.

But if you look at his voting record he almost always aligns with the Democratic voting block. Exceptions: Wall Street, TPP, Iraq and any other situation where he's MORE liberal than the Democrats. His only stance that aligns more closely with conservatives is his record on gun control., but even there he is more progressive than their entire party.

 

[Flamencology]

Still, Andy... He's not running to win, right now. He's running to finish. Big difference.

 

[Help!I'maRock!]

Just to get back to climate change for a moment, right here is the problem:

 

[Flamencology]

Just to get back to climate change for a moment, right here is the problem:

Spite, Howie. Spite.

 

[sunvalleylaw]

But if you look at his voting record he almost always aligns with the Democratic voting block. Exceptions: Wall Street, TPP, Iraq and any other situation where he's MORE liberal than the Democrats. His only stance that aligns more closely with conservatives is his record on gun control., but even there he is more progressive than their entire party.

Oh I agree with that. I am not saying he is aligned with conservatives. I was just saying he is outside the democratic party establishment (which I was likening to a union for collective bargaining in terms of political ideas), so it affects him in the primary race, particularly with regard to pledged delegates. I personally align much better with his views.

 

[GomezAddams]

I get the numbers. Again, he just has to keep the race tight and to keep Clinton from sweeping any of the states.

I don't understand. Keeping the race tight and preventing Clinton from sweeping any of the remaining states accomplishes nothing for Sanders or his supporters. The superdelegates will not change their votes from Clinton to Sanders unless he takes the lead in pledged delegates, which isn't likely to happen.

Even if it does happen, I'm sure the superdelegates' keepers will hold the reigns tight and pointed in Clinton's direction.

 

[Chad]

I don't understand. Keeping the race tight and preventing Clinton from sweeping any of the remaining states accomplishes nothing for Sanders or his supporters. The superdelegates will not change their votes from Clinton to Sanders unless he takes the lead in pledged delegates, which isn't likely to happen.

Even if it does happen, I'm sure the superdelegates' keepers will hold the reigns tight and pointed in Clinton's direction.

I think the top priority of the super delegates is to make sure the nominee wins the election. What good are all of the political favors if the candidate you back loses? If Bernie can keep it tight and the polls keep showing him doing better against Trump, they will have to change their vote or risk President Trump.

 

[Kerouac]

I don't understand. Keeping the race tight and preventing Clinton from sweeping any of the remaining states accomplishes nothing for Sanders or his supporters. The superdelegates will not change their votes from Clinton to Sanders unless he takes the lead in pledged delegates, which isn't likely to happen.

Even if it does happen, I'm sure the superdelegates' keepers will hold the reigns tight and pointed in Clinton's direction.

If Clinton can't sweep the board it casts further doubt on her GE viability. This should have been an easy win for her, but it isn't. Sanders isn't backing down and just handing things over to her; if she wants his support and that of his supporters she needs to earn it.

 

[GomezAddams]

I think the top priority of the super delegates is to make sure the nominee wins the election. What good are all of the political favors if the candidate you back loses? If Bernie can keep it tight and the polls keep showing him doing better against Trump, they will have to change their vote or risk President Trump.

In short, no. If the superdelegates' top priority was to insure that the Democratic candidate was the one who'd be most electable in the general, they'd have already started to break ranks and pledged themselves to Sanders (particularly superdelegates from states that Sanders won, since they'd have reasonable justification).

Also, keep in mind that the superdelegates are themselves long time politicians. Their ultimate bosses are the big money people who grease their political skids. While the Democratic party bosses' priority might be to get a Democrat in the oval office, they are not the ones pulling the superdelegates' strings. Rest assured, money cares far more about which candidate will protect their interests over which party that candidate belongs to.

 

[Beyer160]

I think the top priority of the super delegates is to make sure the nominee wins the election. What good are all of the political favors if the candidate you back loses? If Bernie can keep it tight and the polls keep showing him doing better against Trump, they will have to change their vote or risk President Trump.

The Democratic party (like the Republican party) exists solely to serve the interests of its corporate owners. To them, a Sanders presidency may be even more disastrous to their revenue stream and power base in the long term than a Trump presidency. Trump would be a disaster across the board, but Sanders would target their power and wealth specifically. The upper echelons of the DNC are committed to preventing Sanders AND Trump from becoming president. The only thing that stands between Clinton and the white house are the American voters, but at her level that's not much of a challenge.

 

[rhino]

In short, no. If the superdelegates' top priority was to insure that the Democratic candidate was the one who'd be most electable in the general, they'd have already started to break ranks and pledged themselves to Sanders (particularly superdelegates from states that Sanders won, since they'd have reasonable justification).

Also, keep in mind that the superdelegates are themselves long time politicians. Their ultimate bosses are the big money people who grease their political skids. While the Democratic party bosses' priority might be to get a Democrat in the oval office, they are not the ones pulling the superdelegates' strings. Rest assured, money cares far more about which candidate will protect their interests over which party that candidate belongs to.

I liked it, not because I do, but because it's true.