GDSmithTX
Corporate cog
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...k-no-evidence-jobs-data-manipulated/99157152/
Fact check: No evidence jobs data was ‘manipulated’
President Trump’s chief budget officer claimed — without any evidence — that “the Obama administration was manipulating the numbers” to make the nation’s unemployment rate “look smaller.”
Asked for evidence, White House press secretary Sean Spicer also offered none. Spicer replied that Mick Mulvaney, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, was “clearly referring to Obamacare.” That’s false.
Mulvaney was clearly talking about employment data when he made his remarks March 12 on CNN’s State of the Union. Host Jake Tapper played a video clip from Feb. 9, 2016, in which Trump called the unemployment rate “phony numbers.” At the time, the unemployment rate was 4.9%.
“Don’t believe those phony numbers when you hear 4.9 and 5% unemployment,” Trump said. “The number is probably 28, 29, as high as 35. In fact, I even heard recently 42%.”
(As we pointed out at the time, Trump’s 42% figure represented the number of Americans 16 years and older who are not in the labor force — the vast majority of whom did not want a job, such as retirees, students and stay-at-home parents).
Despite candidate Trump’s skepticism of the unemployment rate, President Trump touted the latest jobs figure released on March 10 by BLS. The U.S. added 235,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate was “little changed” at 4.7%, down from 4.8% in January, according to a BLS press release.
Spicer, Trump’s top spokesman, joked about the president’s embrace of the jobs data. Asked at a March 10 press briefing about the president’s change of heart, Spicer said, “Yeah, I talked to the president prior to this, and he said to quote him very clearly — ‘They may have been phony in the past, but it’s very real now.'”
On the State of the Union, Tapper asked Mulvaney whether there were any changes to the methodology used by BLS to calculate the February unemployment rate.
Mulvaney presented no evidence to support his suspicion that “the Obama administration was manipulating the numbers,” even after he was pressed to do so by Tapper.
A day later, Trump’s chief spokesman was asked at a White House briefing (18:38 mark) for evidence of data manipulation, but he also offered none. In fact, Spicer wrongly claimed that Mulvaney was talking about the Affordable Care Act — which was clearly not the case, as the exchange above shows.
As for the Obama administration, Erica Groshen, who was commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics during Obama’s second term, told CNN, “During the four years I served as commissioner, the administration didn’t try to manipulate the numbers at all.”
(The first BLS commissioner to serve under Obama was a holdover from the Bush administration. Keith Hall, a conservative economist, was BLS commissioner until January 2012. Hall is now the director of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office — as selected by House Republicans in 2015.)
In the CNN interview, Mulvaney sought to highlight the difference between monthly job gains and the unemployment rate. He said adding 250,000 jobs in a month is a sign that “the economy is doing extraordinarily well.” By that measure, job growth was extraordinary in 20 of the 96 months under Obama. Overall, the nation’s economy has added 11.5 million jobs under Obama, including a record 75 straight months of job growth — which was extended to 76 months in February. [snip]
Fact check: No evidence jobs data was ‘manipulated’
President Trump’s chief budget officer claimed — without any evidence — that “the Obama administration was manipulating the numbers” to make the nation’s unemployment rate “look smaller.”
Asked for evidence, White House press secretary Sean Spicer also offered none. Spicer replied that Mick Mulvaney, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, was “clearly referring to Obamacare.” That’s false.
Mulvaney was clearly talking about employment data when he made his remarks March 12 on CNN’s State of the Union. Host Jake Tapper played a video clip from Feb. 9, 2016, in which Trump called the unemployment rate “phony numbers.” At the time, the unemployment rate was 4.9%.
“Don’t believe those phony numbers when you hear 4.9 and 5% unemployment,” Trump said. “The number is probably 28, 29, as high as 35. In fact, I even heard recently 42%.”
(As we pointed out at the time, Trump’s 42% figure represented the number of Americans 16 years and older who are not in the labor force — the vast majority of whom did not want a job, such as retirees, students and stay-at-home parents).
Despite candidate Trump’s skepticism of the unemployment rate, President Trump touted the latest jobs figure released on March 10 by BLS. The U.S. added 235,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate was “little changed” at 4.7%, down from 4.8% in January, according to a BLS press release.
Spicer, Trump’s top spokesman, joked about the president’s embrace of the jobs data. Asked at a March 10 press briefing about the president’s change of heart, Spicer said, “Yeah, I talked to the president prior to this, and he said to quote him very clearly — ‘They may have been phony in the past, but it’s very real now.'”
On the State of the Union, Tapper asked Mulvaney whether there were any changes to the methodology used by BLS to calculate the February unemployment rate.
Tapper: "So, did anything actually change at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in terms of methodology or who is running the business there?"
Mulvaney: "What I think changed is, you start to look at some of the underlying numbers. You look at the U6 number. We could talk — I’m already boring your audience. There’s things like U3, U6. And what you should really look at is the number of jobs created.
"We’ve thought for a long time, I did, that the Obama administration was manipulating the numbers in terms of the number of people in the work force to make the unemployment rate, that percentage rate, look smaller than it actually was.
"And we used to tell people back home, the only thing you should really look at, number of jobs created. And as long as that number is above [250,000], then the economy is doing extraordinarily well. And that was the number we hit last week."
Mulvaney: "What I think changed is, you start to look at some of the underlying numbers. You look at the U6 number. We could talk — I’m already boring your audience. There’s things like U3, U6. And what you should really look at is the number of jobs created.
"We’ve thought for a long time, I did, that the Obama administration was manipulating the numbers in terms of the number of people in the work force to make the unemployment rate, that percentage rate, look smaller than it actually was.
"And we used to tell people back home, the only thing you should really look at, number of jobs created. And as long as that number is above [250,000], then the economy is doing extraordinarily well. And that was the number we hit last week."
Mulvaney presented no evidence to support his suspicion that “the Obama administration was manipulating the numbers,” even after he was pressed to do so by Tapper.
A day later, Trump’s chief spokesman was asked at a White House briefing (18:38 mark) for evidence of data manipulation, but he also offered none. In fact, Spicer wrongly claimed that Mulvaney was talking about the Affordable Care Act — which was clearly not the case, as the exchange above shows.
Reporter, March 13: "Director Mulvaney said yesterday that he felt the Obama administration had been manipulating the unemployment rate. I’m wondering if that’s a view the president shares and what evidence is there of that?"
Spicer: "I think he was clearly referring to Obamacare with the number of people, but I would refer you back to him and his comments with respect to how he characterized that. I think he can discuss the precise nature of what he meant on that."
Spicer: "I think he was clearly referring to Obamacare with the number of people, but I would refer you back to him and his comments with respect to how he characterized that. I think he can discuss the precise nature of what he meant on that."
As for the Obama administration, Erica Groshen, who was commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics during Obama’s second term, told CNN, “During the four years I served as commissioner, the administration didn’t try to manipulate the numbers at all.”
(The first BLS commissioner to serve under Obama was a holdover from the Bush administration. Keith Hall, a conservative economist, was BLS commissioner until January 2012. Hall is now the director of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office — as selected by House Republicans in 2015.)
In the CNN interview, Mulvaney sought to highlight the difference between monthly job gains and the unemployment rate. He said adding 250,000 jobs in a month is a sign that “the economy is doing extraordinarily well.” By that measure, job growth was extraordinary in 20 of the 96 months under Obama. Overall, the nation’s economy has added 11.5 million jobs under Obama, including a record 75 straight months of job growth — which was extended to 76 months in February. [snip]
