Hurricane a comin!

Latest forecast is encouraging. Unless you’re in Jax/Savannah.

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MonkeyZero said:
Latest track showing Cat 2 slamming directly into Daytona Beach with a North/South variance of a couple hundred miles. We are in full Emergency Management here at the facility. Will be making decisions by end of business tomorrow.
The good news is if we evacuate the patients we are now looking at the facility 3 hours south of us and I won't have to go. The bad news is if we lose power I have A LOT of work to do when we come back.
Keep all of your collective fingers crossed on this one. We are 3 miles as the crow flies from the ocean here at the facility and my house is about 10.
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From what I am hearing, once it clears Puerto Rico the models should come more into some sort of common agreement and they expect the forecast wont have such a large cone. Unfortunately as of now they seem to think it is strengthening which sucks. I'm in Palm Beach County and work for a municipality and we are in emergency management mode, almost as if it were pointed at us. It is easier to back off then it is to ramp up in a hurry.
 
Johnny N. said:
From what I am hearing, once it clears Puerto Rico the models should come more into some sort of common agreement and they expect the forecast wont have such a large cone. Unfortunately as of now they seem to think it is strengthening which sucks. I'm in Palm Beach County and work for a municipality and we are in emergency management mode, almost as if it were pointed at us. It is easier to back off then it is to ramp up in a hurry.
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The lower-lever circulation got hung up and disrupted as it crossed St. Lucia. It reorganized farther north, and the hopes of Dorian tearing itself apart over Hispaniola went out the window. Now the storm is farther north and east in the clear, with little shear (for now).

Still many variables, still a few days out, stay vigilant. Even the GOM is in play this far out.

Here's where I get my info:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

Models are under the Global tab. Click on his home page for his daily video, which he posts around 8pm CST. Imo, the best source on the internet.

If you don't already know this (and you may, living where you do) The two big players are the GFS and the ECMWF (Euro). The Euro has been the best model for a while, but not always. When the two come into agreement, they can be startlingly accurate.
 
Steverino said:
If you don't already know this (and you may, living where you do) The two big players are the GFS and the ECMWF (Euro). The Euro has been the best model for a while, but not always. When the two come into agreement, they can be startlingly accurate.
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I really wish I didn't know this stuff as well as I do but I guess the tradeoff for living in a place that has to deal with hurricanes is I have some of the best fishing in the world minutes from the ramp. And at least hurricanes move slow. Our city is pretty good at the emergency management game so we go through the process regardless. Sometimes it ends up being a really good training mission which is fine by me.
 
Johnny N. said:
I really wish I didn't know this stuff as well as I do but I guess the tradeoff for living in a place that has to deal with hurricanes is I have some of the best fishing in the world minutes from the ramp. And at least hurricanes move slow. Our city is pretty good at the emergency management game so we go through the process regardless. Sometimes it ends up being a really good training mission which is fine by me.
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I can duck and dodge a hurricane, or take whatever actions I need, like you said. And the fishing's good (most of the time, I'm on the MS Coast). Everyone here is a prepper of sorts in that we're ready to go at least a week or two on our own. Just tested the generators a couple of weeks ago.
 
The main issue for us (work) is that we have to make a decision before we actually know where it will land. We can't afford to get stuck in traffic heading north to TN. My fear is them getting on the road, sitting in traffic for 20 hours and then the storm has passed and they turn around and come back super pissed off. If the power was more reliable we would just shelter in place.
 
MonkeyZero said:
The main issue for us (work) is that we have to make a decision before we actually know where it will land. We can't afford to get stuck in traffic heading north to TN. My fear is them getting on the road, sitting in traffic for 20 hours and then the storm has passed and they turn around and come back super pissed off. If the power was more reliable we would just shelter in place.
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I had a friend who did this with Rita. He was stuck on the highway for hours. While sitting in traffic and the storm closed in, it became apparent it was veering west and there wouldn't have been any danger in staying. Extremely frustrating, but taking that chance isn't always worth it.

Looks like there's no avoiding Dorian if you're anywhere in between Daytona and Miami, just exactly when, where and how intense, it's just too far out at this time. Make your plans and hope for the best. I don't like seeing some models that slow it down. The entire scenario hinges on what that ridge to the north does. One thing for sure, it's not going to go away anytime soon.

If I was 100% Dorian was going to hit to my south along the coast, I'd be more inclined to evacuate. I've heard the Cape mentioned several times in the past 24hrs.
 
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