Achtung! Guitar Center is toast

GC isn’t toast, the employees are.

Shareholders love a good layoff. Is GC still run by VC types? I know the PPP is iffy in bailouts for VC business and maybe they figured, fuck it we’re not eligible or gonna bother trying for the govt money or the employee retention tax credits. Rent is probably a bigger problem for them than labor anyway—especially if their lessons are done by independent contractors.
 
They’ll bounce back when the world opens up again. The employees will need jobs and the landlords will rather forgive lost rent than wait for people to start up new retail businesses to appear in a terrible recession.
 
GC drove all the mom n' pop stores out of business. If they fold, where then will John & Jane Q. Public go to buy horribly set-up new guitars?
 
GC drove all the mom n' pop stores out of business. If they fold, where then will John & Jane Q. Public go to buy horribly set-up new guitars?

I could always ask Wildwood to save me a Gibson that hasn’t been out of the box.
 
Should I feel bad? They just credited me for some ivory bridgepins today. One of the paua dots was defective. They said it was a non returnable item so they refunded the $22. The dots are so small, it's hard to tell one of them is a dud.
 
I'm not so sure they will be back. Certainly not in their current form, and certainly not with such a large brick and mortar footprint. They've been circling the drain for a long time as it is and struggling to keep stores stocked with inventory. Their credit rating tanked again last month... there are no more VC types willing to infuse them with cash they'll never be able to turn around with. I just don't see how they could return to anything resembling a retail giant.

The name might continue on along with an online retail presence, and maybe a small scattering of retail outlets in key markets, but the damage is done. It could be months before they could even try to reopen stores, and after furloughing virtually all of their retail staff, that's a logistical nightmare of epic proportions. They can't just make a few phone calls and emails and expect all of those people to be ready and willing to come back. Doesn't really matter if their landlords forgive past rent, which is a huge assumption to say the least. That's probably not even in the top five hurdles to overcome.

Nah, they're done.

I'd expect to see an eventual announcement that they are all but quitting the Brick and mortar part of their business and concentrating on ecommerce. Maybe some liquidation sales at select locations once the green light comes to reopen. I'd bet they are already putting that plan together including working out how to consolidate inventory from multiple locations into centralized clearance centers for when that's an option.

Honestly, this thing could be what saves them from total collapse. This is their opportunity to shed all the cumbersome overhead and re-invent themselves on the other side.
 
I have no idea what the correlation is between this and then being toast.

I don't follow.

Sorry.

Is there a question there? They just furloughed 7,000 employees. That would be a pretty strong indicator that they are going to shutter their retail operations permanently rather than indefinitely.

Not 100% guaranteed, but...
 
I don't follow.

Sorry.

Is there a question there? They just furloughed 7,000 employees. That would be a pretty strong indicator that they are going to shutter their retail operations permanently rather than indefinitely.

Not 100% guaranteed, but...
Absolutely not. They have no choice but to furlough them. It would be irresponsible not to furlough them. That is how you stay open. You can’t afford to pay employees with a fraction of your cash flow. There may be a handful of stores that don’t reopen but that will be all. They will be no worse of than they already are now.
 
I don't follow.

Sorry.

Is there a question there? They just furloughed 7,000 employees. That would be a pretty strong indicator that they are going to shutter their retail operations permanently rather than indefinitely.

Not 100% guaranteed, but...

Furlough means they are coming back. That’s the definition of the word.

Companies that furlough have to state that they plan to bring back the employees to take advantage of the Partial Unemployment funds made available through the FFRCA. These funds are paid from federal tax dollars instead of being charged to the employees’ state unemployment insurance tax accounts.

They have no choice but to shutter retail operations. They are not providing an essential service under any of the Shelter In Place orders.

So, I think you might be reading too much into this.

That said, clearly it’s not good when a company has to furlough 7000 employees.

No offense intended, by the way. This is complex stuff.
 
If you ever shopped at my GC, you wouldn’t feel bad about it. I’ve never seen a store with worse sales people. I went there with a friend a few weeks ago. He was going to buy some new Ibanez the GC website has listed at $1000. The store had it for $1300. The sales guy pulled up the site, saw it was the correct model, he would only knock off $100, making it $200 more than buying it from the website. He said screw it, found one on Reverb for $800. We went back a few weeks later and the guitar was $1000.
 
Furlough means they are coming back. That’s the definition of the word.

Companies that furlough have to state that they plan to bring back the employees to take advantage of the Partial Unemployment funds made available through the FFRCA. These funds are paid from federal tax dollars instead of being charged to the employees’ state unemployment insurance tax accounts.

They have no choice but to shutter retail operations. They are not providing an essential service under any of the Shelter In Place orders.

So, I think you might be reading too much into this.

That said, clearly it’s not good when a company has to furlough 7000 employees.

No offense intended, by the way. This is complex stuff.


I actually understand all of this and agree on the definitions etc.

I'm just saying that this on top of what has been their recent struggles will likely be the last straw. They might have every intention to bring everyone back and resume normal operations, but that doesn't mean they'll be in any position to do so. Indeed, they have no choice but to shutter their stores, but for how long is anyone's guess right now. I honestly don't see them getting the green light to reopen any time soon. I would not be surprised if it's two months or longer. With no cash reserves, no credit, and being about to die already before this crisis it's going to be a tall order. I don't think it even makes sense for them to try. Short of a massive bailout or forgiving of debts, they are in deep shit. My local store has been a joke for a couple of years as it is. The inventory is pathetic and mostly old, beat up junk. They have a skeleton crew working that are not exactly pros, they don't ever get current generation gear from anyone. If you want a current model of anything... you're SOL at that store. Even the main San Diego proper store has been that way more and more as the company has gotten deeper into failure.

They hardly had anything to offer a lukewarm buying public to begin with, I suspect that buying public will be much more frugal and particular when this thing blows over. There's going to be far less disposable income to spread around. That's going to affect every retailer for sure, but some much more than others.

I just don't see their viability going forward.

Whether the furloughs are simply protocol or not isn't the point really. If anything it's just keeping them in line with what's expected/required, and will work in their favor when the inevitable BK is filed. They aren't coming back to what they were before this. There's not a chance in Hell.

I could be wrong. They've surprised me before. This situation is unlike anything we've seen before though and a lot of businesses are going to be relegated to history by it. That's the sad reality. If this is the end of the road for them, they'll be stuck in a traffic jam on the way there. They'll have lots of company.
 
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