Will "Vintage Guitars" be worthless when all the boomers are dead?
- Thread starter Honkridge
- Start date
Chicken Man
Kick Henry Jackassowski
The market is due for a correction, AND will be flooded by dead boomer collections in the next 10 years, so not worthless, but worth less.
I think this is the most probable outcome in the foreseeable future.
DinoMikeSr
I have the box
There is an insane number of guitars out there. A stupid number of outrageous priced instruments and I don’t see a population coming to support it.
jp_nyc
Kick Henry Jackassowski
Agreed. Boomers are going to start selling those vintage guitars to pay for medical bills, assisted living facilities, and retirement investments that went south. There are going to be thousands of old instruments hitting the market. And there will be a slow but steady trickle coming from Japan as the guys who came to the USA to buy guitars in the 1980s start dying. But that will take longer because Japanese people generally live longer than Americans and they have a better health care system.
I've always wondered what 70 years of guitar production since the beginning of rock and roll must look like if you lined them all up end to end.. Especially since the 1990's.
Peen Simmons
Let’s Get Obtuse!
In terms of electrics, I think some things will retain value — for example they’re not making any more 59 Bursts or first gen 50s strats. And in the case of the Bursts, you’re simply not going to see wood of that quality again in quantities like what was available when they were made.
There will probably be some revaluation when it comes to other stuff without clear OMG historical significance and/or insane quality. I suspect some guitar hoarders are in for the same “oh shit” realizations as people whose Elvis memorabilia or 1950s car hobbies bottomed out as the market simply died. Pre-CBS Fenders and certain classic runs of vintage instruments like the Bursts are probably going to be valued highly for a long time. But some of the “vintage” prices attached to 70s three bolt strats or amp in case Silvertones or whatever will probably fade away.
There will probably be some revaluation when it comes to other stuff without clear OMG historical significance and/or insane quality. I suspect some guitar hoarders are in for the same “oh shit” realizations as people whose Elvis memorabilia or 1950s car hobbies bottomed out as the market simply died. Pre-CBS Fenders and certain classic runs of vintage instruments like the Bursts are probably going to be valued highly for a long time. But some of the “vintage” prices attached to 70s three bolt strats or amp in case Silvertones or whatever will probably fade away.
Peen Simmons
Let’s Get Obtuse!
Another issue to consider is also deforestation, climate change, and other environmental impacts. A lot of traditional beloved tonewoods are going to be harder to come by, which might cause some vintage or just older items to retain value. I mean, Fender has phased out ash in a lot of its basic production runs.
DinoMikeSr
I have the box
Beato’s right.
I ‘m not talking about pre-war Martin. Just electric alone.
What artist is going to pay more for greenie than Kirk Hammett?
In my opinion ZZ Top didn’t get near top dollar for their music catalog? Will he get burned when it comes time to sell Pearly Gates? Plus Billy has like 20 59’s from when he went on a world wide buying spree a few years back.
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Flamencology
You don't deserve koa.
Yeah. Brazilian rosewood isn’t going to get any cheaper any time soon.
DinoMikeSr
I have the box
Question really is who’s going to continue to want or care about it. You can’t hang a hat on sound anymore because we are on the edge of any amp you buy will simply sound great because of the technology.
I mean look at ZZ Top, they have basically been touring with hollowed out cardboard boxes for years now and admitted to digitally altering the sound to be the same on anything plugged in. Boss has put out great sounding amps for the every player.
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Flamencology
You don't deserve koa.
Electrics are a different species. It’s the pickups that do all the talking. Everything else is just intonation, ergonomics, and aesthetics.
Bob411
thrumming with potential
True but, on the other hand, it seamed like modeling, "Kemper, Axfx, etc." would never get to the point of being useable. How soon till it doesn't matter what pickups you have in your guitar? How soon till the guitar even matters?
Peen Simmons
Let’s Get Obtuse!
Feel, status, luxury, etc. Tone wood has very very very little to do with the final electric guitar sound, but guitars made with “good wood” do resonate differently—in your hands and against your body. Which does change the experience of playing. Is this all the wood or a combination of factors? Probably the latter. But there will always be a market for splinters of the true cross.
You and Mike are right on one point — fancy vintage amps and drool worthy tube monstrosities are probably on borrowed time because the alternatives are improving rapidly, how sound is done at venues and in studios is changing, and the wall of raw power isn’t necessary/practical/safe to operate re: hearing damage.
I mean, playing through a cooking Marshall half-stack is a ton of fun. But it’s very very very silly and impractical.
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Peen Simmons
Let’s Get Obtuse!
This is a minor point, but Beato does have a business relationship as a spokesperson for a brand dedicated to selling authentically-branded reissues. So that might color his perspectives a tiny bit. But he’s probably correct that most mainstream popular entertainers are not hung up on the myth of Excalibur which was really kind of an obsession of the Boomer faniboi classic rock guys—mainly the musicians receiving gifts from Joe Walsh.