jelloman
Couch'd Tater...
At this moment there are a reported 50,000 Ford F150s sitting on the lots at the factories waiting for critical components (all containing microchips) to complete assemble. Lots at virtually every car dealership are rapidly emptying of inventory as the car makers slow down or halt production while they wait for parts.
https://www.thedrive.com/news/39868...-after-the-assembly-line-due-to-chip-shortage
As scary as that is it's nothing compared to what is about to happen on the parts and service side of the industry.
The potential catastrophe can be summed up nicely based on what's happening right now with just one part number.
Ford part number AE8z7Z369F is the Transmission Control Module for virtually every Ford Focus built between 2010 and 2019, and it's failure totally disables the car until replaced. Average monthly demand for this part trends between 10,000 and 15,000 per month. At this moment in time there are approximately 20,000 on backorder from Ford, with only about 2,000 in the pipeline to cover them. The merchandiser remarks page for this part reads simply that Ford "is working with suppliers to establish a timeline for production" with no estimated ship dates available.
If the current reporting on the microchip shortage holds true it could be 6 months to a year before the industry starts to catch up with demand. Based on the optimistic projection, by the time product is moving again there could be as many as 95,000 modules on backorder, representing almost as many disabled vehicles stuck on dealership lots. Once product starts to move it will take another month or 2 before they start showing up at the dealership level, adding as many as 30,000 more backorders, assuming that demand matches current trends. There is virtually no way production can fill those backorders immediately. Assuming an accelerated production of let's say 25,000 per month, they will only be able to fill backorders at a rate double that of demand, so the potential for a year-long (or longer) wait for the total backlog to be filled is possible.
AND THAT'S JUST ONE PART! Based on the literally THOUSANDS of performance-critical components that contain microchips and could potentially be affected by the shortage for all vehicle manufacturers, the potential number of vehicles (and by extension their owners) that could be effectively disabled is astronomical.
https://www.thedrive.com/news/39868...-after-the-assembly-line-due-to-chip-shortage
As scary as that is it's nothing compared to what is about to happen on the parts and service side of the industry.
The potential catastrophe can be summed up nicely based on what's happening right now with just one part number.
Ford part number AE8z7Z369F is the Transmission Control Module for virtually every Ford Focus built between 2010 and 2019, and it's failure totally disables the car until replaced. Average monthly demand for this part trends between 10,000 and 15,000 per month. At this moment in time there are approximately 20,000 on backorder from Ford, with only about 2,000 in the pipeline to cover them. The merchandiser remarks page for this part reads simply that Ford "is working with suppliers to establish a timeline for production" with no estimated ship dates available.
If the current reporting on the microchip shortage holds true it could be 6 months to a year before the industry starts to catch up with demand. Based on the optimistic projection, by the time product is moving again there could be as many as 95,000 modules on backorder, representing almost as many disabled vehicles stuck on dealership lots. Once product starts to move it will take another month or 2 before they start showing up at the dealership level, adding as many as 30,000 more backorders, assuming that demand matches current trends. There is virtually no way production can fill those backorders immediately. Assuming an accelerated production of let's say 25,000 per month, they will only be able to fill backorders at a rate double that of demand, so the potential for a year-long (or longer) wait for the total backlog to be filled is possible.
AND THAT'S JUST ONE PART! Based on the literally THOUSANDS of performance-critical components that contain microchips and could potentially be affected by the shortage for all vehicle manufacturers, the potential number of vehicles (and by extension their owners) that could be effectively disabled is astronomical.
