I actually thought that Colbert would make the perfect replacement for Dave. Well, lo and behold it's coming true. The guy is one of the most versatile comedians out there. He will be awesome filling in this competitive slot for CBS. TBO, I think Kimmel is the best on there right now in that time slot. He's funny as hell. Although Craig Furguson is the best of them all.
Nice post. Steven can definitely do it and this is now one of those jobs. For all the hubbub following Leno replacing Carson, Letterman has his own audience and different crowd that wasn't watching Leno and isn't watching Fallon or Kimmel. Kimmel is one of those guys that has said Letterman was his guy and that's who he wanted to be. The generation of folks that would have made up the pool to be tapped to fill Letterman's slot were folks that watched him, got there break on his show, wanted to be him. They have no interest in the Tonight Show.
But you may be right about Kimmel being the best in the time slot these days, but it wasn't always so. He was awkward as hell...bad even initially. Now he's the most ireverant and willing to say exactly what's on his mind. As such he's developed his own audience as well and they won't watch Conan, Fallon, Letterman, or Colbert. Fallon was actually similar. I'm still not really into him, but during the few years he was doing Conan's slot he went from being really bad to figuring how to make it work for him. That of course involves sketch comedy and music based skits.
I'm wondering if Stewart feels slighted at all. I would think him being him would be a more obvious transition to a 1-hour late night show. Colbert has to break away from his character and reintroduce himself to people. Those expecting a one hour Colbert Report are going to be disappointed. Those that will let him do his thing will hopefully be rewarded.
Lastly, I agree about Ferguson. He's the most natural of them all. He seems to be completely "himself" and at home. He's perfect for the the 12:30-1:30 time slot. I never get to watch any of this stuff anymore, but I used to love Letterman and Conan. Between their personalities and the musical guests they were my favorite for years. Didn't make the transition to Conan's Tonight Show, but did watch Conan a bit when I could. He's still great too, more mellow and I think he's very happy with where he is...at least I hope so.