Baseball fans - Just over a week 'till opening day.
- Thread starter Denverdave
- Start date
OGG
Master of the Meh
Saw that.
Once again, that is a situation where actual stats and conventional wisdom are at odds with each other. We are conditioned to accept that Homefield Advantage is much more "real" than what the math actually shows. The stats mentioned in the above article relating to the 1 in 32,000+ chance of all 15 home teams winning on the same day is probably very well researched and accurate, but it still seems astronomically high compared to what intuition would suggest.
It is generally assumed and accepted that teams nearly always have a better win/loss record at home than they do on the road.
Even if it's 51/49 on average, you would think that each home team has a 51% chance of winning on a given day. Therefore, it seems sensible that if you extrapolate that out across the leagues, every day would have a 51% chance of producing a Homefield sweep.
I know that's clearly not the case, but it's how one would likely see the odds. When compared to 1/32,000+ it is shockingly counter-intuitive to even suggest that there actually is such a thing as Homefield Advantage.
I know, my brain is weird.
smorgdonkey
Kick Henry Jackassowski
Yes.
The odds of the first one coming up heads are 50/50.
The probability of all 20 coming up heads is 1 in 1048576.
The method of working this out is that there are 2 possibilities for each coin toss. Possibility times possibility for as many tosses: 2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2=1048576
OGG
Master of the Meh
Yes.
However, while I don't disagree, a coin toss is always 50/50, wherein a competitive sporting match, as the previous stats show, are weighted in favor of the home team.
Therefore, the odds are still ludicrously long, but less so than a coin toss.
smorgdonkey
Kick Henry Jackassowski
well...and there is that scientific analysis that used to say that the heads side is heavier so that in a catch and flip situation, that heads is more dominant. I don't know if that was a myth that was busted, or not - just a foggy recollection of something from way back.
tompetty
Sporting a hammer...
Man oh man.. Good to see the Blue Jays beat the Yanks today in game three after losing two....
They should have won game one but for a coaching error..
Side question...What's up with the bad umping of today? We get to see the strike zone grid and all the balls that are being called strikes..
I usually only watch baseball during the playoffs but kind of jumped on the wagon this year because of how well the Blue Jays have been doing..
Why so many off calls??
They should have won game one but for a coaching error..
Side question...What's up with the bad umping of today? We get to see the strike zone grid and all the balls that are being called strikes..
I usually only watch baseball during the playoffs but kind of jumped on the wagon this year because of how well the Blue Jays have been doing..
Why so many off calls??
Help!I'maRock!
Mediocringly Derivative
Technological accuracy increases much faster than human accuracy. We see all this stuff on the screen, but the people on the field are still human.
Help!I'maRock!
Mediocringly Derivative
http://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybr...-of-mlb-games-coming-to-some-markets-in-2016/
chewie0party0009party0DANCING-banana:bluesdance:
:spaz::ep:
chewie0party0009party0DANCING-banana:bluesdance:
:spaz::ep:
tiger roach
Urban Bovine Knievel
CONGRATS MIKE FIERS
No no
No no
Tig
Fucktangular
That was an awesome game last night! It was only his third time to pitch for the Astros, too. He had only one earned run against him in the previous game. This was only the fourth no hitter of the season.CONGRATS MIKE FIERS
No no
We'll be at Sunday's game when the Dodger's Kershaw is pitching. Will he have another frustrated meltdown?
tiger roach
Urban Bovine Knievel
Denverdave
Resident Ragamuffin
Well....the Rockies wunderkind got torched by the Mets last night. Mets starter got lit up too.....ugly game pitching wise for the Rocks.....but that is typical of this entire season. Probably overall the worst pitching staff in baseball. The bullpen at least is....
CBHScott
How did I get here?
#1) EG won't like that; and
#2) There IS no curse.
Funny how all the Cubs fans were all angsty because they sucked badly the last few years, while Theo and Jed were putting the pieces in place. Now, of coure, the fans are all "oh, we knew what was happening..." rolleyes1 . Anyhoo, they have some great young talent, and the team is now built to not suck for years to come.
Denverdave
Resident Ragamuffin
Things are getting exciting for the Rocks though......we are only about 2 or 3 games out of the worst record in baseball and the #1 pick. At this point they need to quit playing vets who will be gone next year and start pulling up players from AAA earlier than the September call up.
Help!I'maRock!
Mediocringly Derivative
Bartolo was hit by a pitch on the wrist while batting. It looked like he was growing another head out of his forearm. He had a good first inning, but after that AB, it was all downhill.
Rockies need to trade Jose. He looks like shit out there.
Jbird
Kick Henry Jackassowski
They don't have anyone hitting over .300 though. I think to have a truly good team, at least a couple of guys need to be over .300. Either that or you need a north side version of Harvey's Wallbangers, where any batter in the line-up is capable of hitting 20-30 HR's. The Cubs have neither...
Help!I'maRock!
Mediocringly Derivative
Forget batting average. Batting average is for chumps. If you want one statistic that will tell you how good a position player is, and don't want to look at Fangraphs, that stat is OPS. OPS is On-base Plus Slugging. Batting Average omits things like walks, which figure into a player's actual value, making it not such a great indicator.